Comments on Bacon's Rebellion: "Richmond" Has a Credibility Problem - Is There a ...

"The HOT lanes are - about allocating costs for co...

2008-03-27T13:15:00.000-05:00

"The HOT lanes are - about allocating costs for congestion."

Nonsense.

Even worse, you might be right. Once we start collecting for congestion, well, then we know it will never go away, because then, how would you collect?

Yse indeedy, congestion is our friend.

Forced sterilizationRaise taxesLower costsThe edge...

2008-03-27T13:11:00.000-05:00

Forced sterilization
Raise taxes
Lower costs

The edge of the petri dish is near.

Oh yeah,there's one more; no new houses.

RH

"The break-even point in terms of taxes vs service...

2008-03-27T12:33:00.000-05:00

"The break-even point in terms of taxes vs services in Spotsy is around 400K or so.. for one kid...

That's because each kid costs Spotsy about $3000 annually and the taxes on a 400K home are about $2400."

That is a lousy argument, and they use the same one in Fauquier. I don't know what it is in Spotsy, but in Fauquier real estate taxes are only one third of the revenue.

So the breakeven on houses is one third of what it would be if they paid the entire freight.

RH

"The break-even point in terms of taxes vs service...

2008-03-27T09:47:00.000-05:00

"The break-even point in terms of taxes vs services in Spotsy is around 400K or so.. for one kid...".

3 choices:

Forced sterilization
Raise taxes
Lower costs

Your residents - your choice.

"This is the problem with outer ring places because what they attract in huge proportion to existing residents is hordes of kid-laden commuters...".

Stop rezoning low density to high density. Just say "no" to the developers. Your choice.

"These same folks CLOG NoVa roads every day on their SOLO rush-hour commutes.

So.. they kill Spotsy AND NoVA with their lifestyles and they hurt the folks who live and work in NoVa and the folks who live and work in Spotsy.

These folks want it both ways and they depend totally on 'free" commute road to "finance" their lifestyles.

The HOT lanes will allocate the costs of their commute to THEM.".

Yep. Charge whatever you think right (and can get passed) for your roads. Collect the money. Spend it for anything you want. Your choice. However, once they cross into NoVA they are on our roads and we charge whatever we want (and can get passed) and we'll spend the money on anything we want. Our choice.

ya'll need to understand something about Spotsy No...

2008-03-27T08:24:00.000-05:00

ya'll need to understand something about Spotsy NoVa commuters.

They moved from NoVa to get a house with a yard for the kids they want to have but they want to bring their services with them - and especially so schools, 24/7 EMS, more roads, etc.

The break-even point in terms of taxes vs services in Spotsy is around 400K or so.. for one kid...

That's because each kid costs Spotsy about $3000 annually and the taxes on a 400K home are about $2400.

This is the problem with outer ring places because what they attract in huge proportion to existing residents is hordes of kid-laden commuters...

This is what proffers are all about.

There is no way that Spotsy can build those schools with the existing tax revenue so they use proffers for the 10K per kid cost for new schools.

But as I said.. the 3K per kid annual cost requires a house to be in the 400K range - which only NoVa commuters can afford.

the rest of the folks in Spotsy - people who LIVE AND WORK in Spotsy live in much more modest homes,... some even in double-wides.. most 200K or less in value.

These same folks CLOG NoVa roads every day on their SOLO rush-hour commutes.

So.. they kill Spotsy AND NoVA with their lifestyles and they hurt the folks who live and work in NoVa and the folks who live and work in Spotsy.

These folks want it both ways and they depend totally on 'free" commute road to "finance" their lifestyles.

The HOT lanes will allocate the costs of their commute to THEM.

They'll have to decide what is important to them based on the the "cost" of their commute.

some already carpool and ride buses.

More will join them and some will pay the $30 one-way tolls.

The HOT lanes are - about allocating costs for congestion.

The folks who use the roads the most will have to pay the most.

That's fair.

"Local - Will work if sufficient power and respons...

2008-03-27T07:44:00.000-05:00

"Local - Will work if sufficient power and responsibility vested in local government."

I agree.

I think we should pay all our taxes to the local govenment, and if the higher government wants something, they can negotiate with the local government. Instead of having six layers of government, each with the authority to put their hands in the individual's pocket, without regard to what has already been taken.

"Spotsy - wrong. Bringing in wealthy people generates more tax than cost."

I agree. So why all the angst about McMansions? And if wealthy people bring in more tax than cost, what does that say about ordinary people?

I just see huge and selfish circularity in some of these arguments. I see dishonest arguments that propose to be in favor of one thing while actually pushing for another. Making what appear to be false arguments in favor of higher densities, as a back door means of preserving open space. Arguing that users of facilities and services should pay for what they get, and then diverting the funds. Arguing for adequate public facilities, without any intention of ever providing them.

(Congestion is our friend." seems a strange way to promote cleaner air.) I see people claiming benefits for their arguments while ignoring costs, and other times arguing against any cost, no matter what the benefits. We set priorities according to political clout, even when it is clearly wrong. Fauquier is about to impose a meals tax, and the argument goes that it will bring in money from outsiders and tourists, so it won't cost locals as much.

Why is that a good thing? Why would government openly propose to have someone else pay our own legitimate expenses? Well, because tourists have no say in the matter. It is all about power, and nothing about doeing what needs done.

In the end, everyone has a meals tax, we all tax each other, and we all think we are getting one over. It is power run rampant over common sense. It is fundamentally dishonest, but nobody cares.

So, what we wind up with is 75 comments on the best way to tax the other guy, and at the same time expect to control our own money and our own destiny.

BAH.

RH

"If you don't get the governance right - nothing e...

2008-03-26T23:21:00.000-05:00

"If you don't get the governance right - nothing else will be right."

My, my, you are on EMR's payroll.

If so, tell him I deserve a raise.

""extensive single-family residential zoning is a constraint on the exercise of a free market in real estate development".

All zoning is a constraint on the free market - that's fundamentally the definition of zoning.

Laws prohibiting the cultivation of marijuana are a constraint on free market agriculture and help empoverish family farms.

Nobody should tell a woman what she can and can't do with her body - unless, of course, she's selling one of her kidneys to the highest bidder on eBay - that's illegal.

Society has rules.

"There is a market for affordable housing. But local governance has NO INCENTIVE to permit it.".

Absurd.

Providing proper housing for police, firemen, teachers, etc. improves the institutions where those people work and improves the community. It also makes the streets safer and the schools better - which raises real estate values for everyone.

"The Government in Spotsy has NO INCENTIVE to provide transportation, even if those fine homes pay more than the averae in taxes. The government in Fairfax has NO INCENTIVE to give up the jobs.".

Spotsy - wrong. Bringing in wealthy people generates more tax than cost.
Fairfax - probably right. Although this does not stop Spotsy from trying to bring in jobs.

"So, centralized government doesn't work, regional government doesn't work, and local government doesn't work - depending on the problem at hand.".

Centralized - failure by definition
Regional - Depends on establishing a region with roughly common goals and providing a good governance structure.
Local - Will work if sufficient power and responsibility vested in local government.

"The tolls generate revenue which is used to build...

2008-03-26T23:17:00.000-05:00

"The tolls generate revenue which is used to build and improve the roads - which are used by everybody."

If that was the case, I would have less of a problem.

But it isn't. We are going to use the tolls to subsidise transit, which is used by 5% (or less) of the population.

But even if that was the case, I'd still have a problem, because only a few people would pay the tolls to pay for roads used by everybody.

And

We aren't even going to get the roads because a) we are in a non attainment area, and b) there is not enough space, unless c) central planning is willing to redistribute everything.

At enormous cost.

(Next time you are heading west on 66, stop by, unless you are playing in Haymarket).

RH

"the real reason is revenue (g)eneration.Right.".....

2008-03-26T23:04:00.000-05:00

"the real reason is revenue (g)eneration.

Right.

"...the HOT lanes are certainly not for the benefit of NoVa citizens.. but rather for the benefit of business - right?"

Wrong.

The tolls generate revenue which is used to build and improve the roads - which are used by everybody.

If the roads were just for business I wouldn't be stuck in traffic every time I head west on I66 on Saturday morning to play golf. Looking into the other cars it seems there are a lot of soccer and lacrosse games going on.

"Centralized planning to meet naturally decentrali...

2008-03-26T23:00:00.000-05:00

"Centralized planning to meet naturally decentralized needs NEVER works."

I think Anthony Downs would agree.

Leaving powers over land-use planning solely in the hands of parochial local governments is entirely too centralized. The land owner hasn't got near enough say in his own plans.

"extensive single-family residential zoning is a constraint on the exercise of a free market in real estate development".

We talk the talk but don't walk the walk.

-----------------------------

"If you don't get the governance right - nothing else will be right."

My, my, you are on EMR's payroll.

So here is the deal.

What we need is centralized planning, the goal of which is to make sure that we have enough resources available to meet the needs that will be generated by the free market, and which has enough sense to leave it alone.

Instead, what we get is centralized planning the goal of which is to AVOID providing those resources, by screwing with the market.

A la HOT lanes.

There is a market for affordable housing. But local governance has NO INCENTIVE to permit it.

There is a market for fine homes in Spotsy and Loudoun, provided there are a) adequate jobs or b) adequate transportation.

The Government in Spotsy has NO INCENTIVE to provide transportation, even if those fine homes pay more than the averae in taxes. The government in Fairfax has NO INCENTIVE to give up the jobs.

So, centralized government doesn't work, regional government doesn't work, and local government doesn't work - depending on the problem at hand.

I think the reason is that we let, or even demand, that government be in control, instead of requiring that government serve.

Of course, if were to get that, we will expand like crazy, right to the edge of the petri dish. And then we will stand around wondering why the (central) planners didn't tell us and warn us.

RH

"...folks who wanted the high NoVa salaries but no...

2008-03-26T22:34:00.000-05:00

"...folks who wanted the high NoVa salaries but not the high-priced NoVa housing and taxes."

But wait a minute. Those urban areas are supposed to be more efficient. "Alexandria is proposing the areas lowest tax rate." The prices are supposed to be an indication of what people want.

"...the NoVa commuters are not loved in the Fredericksburg Area either - because they have driven the price of housing out of the range of the folks who live AND work in the Fredericksburg Area."

So, they are opposed to free markets, and wish to be protected from housing apprecition. Is that it?

If prices are an indication of what people want, they shouod be happy, right?

----------------------------------

"...the locals do not believe that rich NoVa workers should be riding on subsidized VRE - that they have enough money as a result of their high salaries to pay full fare."

Cool.

Let's take all the state support out for Fredericksburg roads, a good portion of which comes from NOVA, and let F'burgers pay full fare for their own roads.

If EMR is right, they'll be paying $10 a gallon in gas tax.

------------------------------

"...the HOT lanes are certainly not for the benefit of NoVa citizens.. but rather for the benefit of business - right?"

Well, now you are catching on. If they (HOT lanes) are for the benefit of busines, then business should pay, right? And, if business had to pay to bring people in from F'burg, then thy might just move to F'burg.

RH

"but some trips will be deferred to outside of rus...

2008-03-26T22:20:00.000-05:00

"but some trips will be deferred to outside of rush hour..

other trips will get done via other modes.. transit or multi-passenger vehicles"

Yes, I agree. But that's a minor point.

And it is a red herring. The point is that HOT lanes will increase congestion or at least not reduce it, reduce the use of car pools, and increase pollution. All of that is in the studies.

But we are willing to accept all these bad results for the sake of money, to give to train or bus riders.

Yes, the cars that avoid the congestion tolls may go someplace else or go at some other time. That is your argument. How can you say, then, that wherever and whenever they go they won't increase congestion at that place and time?

Well, its because below some annoyance threshold we don't pay any attention to it. And that is how we got in this mess to begin with: we let things get incrementally worse, without recognizing or attempting to fix the basic problem.

"I've been driving here all my life; it's the new guy that's causing the problem."

The fact is, that for all intents and purposes, the HOT lanes will be tolled 24/7. They may shape the volume a little bit, but that is just a sham: the real reason is revenue eneration, the rest is a sales pitch for a paradigm that won't work.

----------------------------------

"since you've expressed opposition to demand pricing on other products and services "

I am NOT opposed to demand pricing. I'm opposed to demand pricing that doesn't save more than it costs. There is a cost associated with moving the demand in space and time. There is a cost associated with installing, integrating, and scaling up new technology and equipment. And there is a cost in aggravation dealing with it all.

--------------------------------

Tonight on TV there was a special on the cost of the war, which gave plus and minus critiques of how the three trillion dollar figure was reached. One point was that it included many future costs, such as ongoing disability payments for those injured or maimed. But, they didn't subtract out the costs of all those folks Saddam would have injured or maimed.

I don't have any problem with saving money (and natural resources) through demand pricing.

I have a problem with arguments for saving water that don't hold water. I have a problem with huge, complicated, grandiose, schemes to save a little tiny bit of externalized costs, maybe 200 years from now. Especially if I don't think they will work.

It isn't that I'm opposed, I just have a high standard of quality.

I know, you want to know what my solution is. I don't have any. If I did, they would be highly unacceptable to most people.

But, I know what I don't like, and I'm saying there are a lot of people like me out there. If you expect to have a winning argument for your agenda,then it needs to incorporate some work-around for my dislikes.

As I've pointed out before, there is no cost associated with ust saying NO.

RH

"I have long felt that one of the problems with gr...

2008-03-26T21:50:00.000-05:00

"I have long felt that one of the problems with growth and development is road-subsidized commuting."

And I agree with you.

Except that-----

all of the proposed alternatives need even higher subsidies.

When push comes to shove, on a level playing field basis, auto drivers pay far more of their own costs AND the externalized costs than other forms of transportation.

Including even bicycles.

And now we expect them to pay their own costs and subsidze others still more. We keep this up and they will eventually abandon their cars to use the subsidised transit.

Then who will pay the extra costs? It will be the auto problem all over again: users not paying their way. But with no one else to stick it to, and a lot fewer options.

We all like transportation options, right?

RH

"1. Local transportation problems should be solved...

2008-03-26T18:11:00.000-05:00

"1. Local transportation problems should be solved locally.

2. The GA is a lost cause."

geeze RH.. there goes your dreams of a GA-inspired statewide gas tax... and gawd.. we're going to punish the heck out of those poor folks just trying to get to grandmas.

Death to Dillon - Reject Incompetence

Just FYI - Last year, Fredericksburg was given the option of joining the NoVa airshed for air quality conformity purposes or to opt out..

they fought like heck to NOT be designated as part of NoVa for air quality purposes.

""what if" the Feds expand the NoVa MSA to include...

2008-03-26T17:33:00.000-05:00

""what if" the Feds expand the NoVa MSA to include you-know-who.. and all of a sudden.. the Fredericksburg Area is officially "Northern Va" - then what?

ahhh.. your worst nightmare..right?"

Not at all.

Then we have one regional transportation authority and we optimize taxes and all transit related spending to our region.

But we do NOT allow "Richmond" to interfere.

We let the Einsteins in "Richmond" spend their days arguing about constitutional amendments regarding the "sanctity of marriage".

Those of us in your proposed new Fredricksburg / NoVA transportation region elect officials to solve our transportation problems with our money.

I've learned a few lessons in 27 years of international business:

1. If you don't get the governance right - nothing else will be right.
2. Organizations that have repeatedly proven themselves incompetent in discharging their mission NEVER suddenly become competent.

So:

1. Local transportation problems should be solved locally.
2. The GA is a lost cause.

"Leaving powers over land-use planning solely in t...

2008-03-26T17:23:00.000-05:00

"Leaving powers over land-use planning solely in the hands of parochial local governments will forever enshrine exclusionary zoning and prevent affordable housing from becoming more widespread."
--Anthony Downs, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

The Brookings Institution?

The organization's president, Strobe Talbott was United States Deputy Secretary of State under President Clinton.

Yes Hillary - big, centralized government is the answer. Don't let those dopey "citizens" cotrol things.

Centralized planning to meet naturally decentralized needs NEVER works.

RH - you ought to recognize the difference between...

2008-03-26T17:20:00.000-05:00

RH - you ought to recognize the difference between demand tolling and express lane tolling - which is static and is equivalent to a commuter tax.

demand tolling might drive some cars somewhere else - and I suspect the advocacy for area-wide tolling is because of that...

but some trips will be deferred to outside of rush hour..

other trips will get done via other modes.. transit or multi-passenger vehicles

and yet other trips will change point a to point b - as in moving closer to a job.. etc..

you treat the traffic volume as fixed.. no matter what.. the same volumes no matter the tolls or the fact that they vary..

Static (express lane) 24/7 tolling would generate revenues and not shape the volume.

and so I'd agree with you if the tolling was 24/7 static tolling..

but I'm not surprised that you don't accept the way that demand tolling works.. since you've expressed opposition to demand pricing on other products and services also.

HOT lane tolls are like cell phone minutes.

Peak hour usage costs more than non-peak hour usage.

It's a valid pricing model.

Let's get a confusion out of the way.I'm not an ap...

2008-03-26T17:09:00.000-05:00

Let's get a confusion out of the way.

I'm not an apologist for the folks in the Fredericksburg Area who have chosen long commutes as a way to maximize their salaries AND housing choices and accomplish it by driving solo on I-95 at rush hour.

I have long felt that one of the problems with growth and development is road-subsidized commuting.

I-95 was never designed to be a "congestion corridor" between NoVa and points south.

It was co-opted for that purpose by folks who wanted the high NoVa salaries but not the high-priced NoVa housing and taxes.

If it is any consolation to do - the NoVa commuters are not loved in the Fredericksburg Area either - because they have driven the price of housing out of the range of the folks who live AND work in the Fredericksburg Area.

Many of the folk who live and work in the Fredericksburg Area cannot afford the type of housing that the NoVa commuters afford.

Further, Spotsylvania refuses to join VRE for two reasons:

1. - the locals do not believe that rich NoVa workers should be riding on subsidized VRE - that they have enough money as a result of their high salaries to pay full fare.

2. - pay attention to this part..

Spotsylvania believes that the way that VRE is operated .. is by an UNELECTED board that has the ability to set the subsidy that the member jurisdictions have to pay without a vote from the locality or it's voters.

What I'm objecting to is a portrayal of the TDM process in the press that is not true if you read the documents.

That's my main objection.

the rest of it.. I agree with most of it.. including the fact that NoVa has.. for years.. been treated by RoVa GA folks as a cash cow.. to be kept "fenced".. and to agree with TMT that unfortunately your own elected seem more beholden to Virginia 'deals' with the real estate and development community than their own citizens interests.

the HOT lanes are certainly not for the benefit of NoVa citizens.. but rather for the benefit of business - right?

and a 'what if" question for you

"what if" the Feds expand the NoVa MSA to include you-know-who.. and all of a sudden.. the Fredericksburg Area is officially "Northern Va" - then what?

ahhh.. your worst nightmare..right?

"The HOT lanes will be demand management tolled. T...

2008-03-26T16:56:00.000-05:00

"The HOT lanes will be demand management tolled. This means that they will not be empty because of car avoiding the toll."

That isn't the point. The point is that it is demand management tolled, so in any case SOME cars will avoid the tolls: tht's how demand management works. Now, where will those cars go, and how much congestion will they cause/endure?

HOT lanes are not a congestion solution, and that means that for all intents and purposes they are the same as revenue tolling. Worse, because the entire presentation is dishonest. Free market blah blah blah.

Call it what it is, a commuter tax.

--------------------------------

"...you should focus the discussion on congestion and not on revenue if you hope to solve the congestion and air pollution problems of Virginia."

Exactly. And HOT lanes will increase congestion, reduce the use of car pools, and do nothing for air pollution. It is entirely the wrong answer to the wrong question.

But at least it will bring in revenue without being a tax.

And it's going to come with a huge lease, so the idea is virtually veto proof, once installed. If we find out later we've been scammed, then what? We are stuck forever, the same as turning conservation land development rights over to private interests: the whole point is to lock government out.

RH

Larry-We have a problem of philosophy. As far as ...

2008-03-26T16:55:00.000-05:00

Larry-

We have a problem of philosophy. As far as I am concerned, anybody who wants to drive (or ride) on NoVA streets can do it NoVA's way. Or, they can elect not to drive (or ride) on our streets. They do not get a vote. They do not get a subsidy. They do not get to take any of our money to use for their purposes. In return, I think anybody driving (or riding) on Fredricksburg's streets ought to do it Fredricksburg's way. Or, exercise their choice to drive (or ride) somewhere else.

The GA has failed Larry. It's partly their intrinsic incompetence. It's partly the kind of scam that they are trying to pull with the toll revenues.

We don't want to spend our toll money on VRE. If you want to spend money on VRE then establish tolls and spend all the money you can collect.

Sorry, but the politically correct BS about "us all being in this together" is just that - BS. The cost of NoVA's roads should be bourne by NoVA. The plans for NoVA's roads should be made by NoVA. "Richmond" (and Fredricksburg for that matter) should butt out. If you don't like our plans - don't come here.

"The demographics of "Northern Virginia" are givin...

2008-03-26T16:43:00.000-05:00

"The demographics of "Northern Virginia" are giving NoVA more and more power. The voters are rejecting the developer / politician cabal. The GA's incompetence is becoming both obvious and a crisis.

The times they are a changin'"

Yep.

"Leaving powers over land-use planning solely in the hands of parochial local governments will forever enshrine exclusionary zoning and prevent affordable housing from becoming more widespread."
--Anthony Downs, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

The times they are a changin and the more they change the more they stay the same.

RH

There seems to be a bit of confusion over congesti...

2008-03-26T16:41:00.000-05:00

There seems to be a bit of confusion over congestion tolling and revenue tolling. The HOT lanes will be demand management tolled. This means that they will not be empty because of car avoiding the toll. The toll goes away when the drivers don’t use the roads.

Because of this feature you can’t toll by the mile. You also can not toll in areas where VDOT has built more roads then needed. You can’t toll in areas that lead to congested bottlenecks because the bottleneck tolls will discourage your drivers from using your segment of the road.

In Northern Virginia that means that toll can be collected at the Occoquan River, Springfield, King Street area and 14th Street Bridge in the I95 corridor. The beltway would be the WWB, Braddock Rd area, both sides of I-66 and near Georgetown Pike.

Congestion tolls won’t work further south because of the VDOT policy of allocating money based on vehicle miles of travel with out regard to lane mile costs.

Last but not least, you should focus the discussion on congestion and not on revenue if you hope to solve the congestion and air pollution problems of Virginia.

"Will the buses that originate from the southern H...

2008-03-26T16:38:00.000-05:00

"Will the buses that originate from the southern HOT lanes NOT be clean fuel buses paid for by HOT lane revenues?"

I just read a report that claims clean fuel buses are very little cleaner. They spew less NOX and particles but more hydrocarbons and CO2.

They are heavier because of the fuel tanks, and less powerful. That won't make much difference on the highway runs, but it slows things down in stop and go conditions.

Furthermore,the article claims the service interval is much shorter, so they cost more to run.

Needless to say, the article was promoted by those with interests in diesel technology.

RH

"Most NoVA legislators, from both parties, are sca...

2008-03-26T16:36:00.000-05:00

"Most NoVA legislators, from both parties, are scared to death of the Washington Post. The Post's editors smell a tax increase and become orgasmic even when it hurts their local readers -- those that remain, that is. With a few exceptions, the NoVA legislators shrink in the face of editorial stupidity and vote against the best interests of their constituents. ".

I disagree.

NoVA politicians are scared to death of the Virginia Republican Party or the Virginia Democratic Party. And those parties make their living using NoVA as a "piggy bank". And even that would be OK if "Richmond" left enough coins in the "piggy bank" for things like road building and maintenance.

As for the NoVA politicians being "in the pocket" of local developers - that has been absolutely true. However, some changes have begun to occur. For example, John Foust's victory over Janet DuBuois was, in my mind, clearly an anti-developer vote. Four years ago DuBois defeated Foust. Last November, Foust beat DuBois (53% to 47%). What changed? The attitude of the voters, that's what changed. Former Supoervisor DuBois was seen as too supportive of unbridled development.

I also remember 40 year Republican Delegate Vince Callahan saying over and over again the he "just doesn't have the votes" to do the right thing. Thank goodness he retired. And what happened? His hand picked successor lost the election. Even if you don't like Margi Vanderhye she represents a voter backlash (in my opinion).

The revolution has begun.

The demographics of "Northern Virginia" are giving NoVA more and more power. The voters are rejecting the developer / politician cabal. The GA's incompetence is becoming both obvious and a crisis.

The times they are a changin'

"There would be the I95 congestion corridor, the I...

2008-03-26T16:28:00.000-05:00

"There would be the I95 congestion corridor, the I66 congestion corridor,....."

As I understand it, that is exactly what is in the plan that brings in the $2 billion --- all those extra roads, already built, soon to be turned over to private industry.

RH