In the 47th comment on the TRAGEDY OF TRICKLE DOWN string, TMT posted a question unrelated to Trickle Down but on an important topic:
The optimum location for the evolution of Balanced Communities.
Jim Bacon posted a responding comment that is on target but TMTs post provided an opportunity to nail down some flapping issues and misunderstandings (aka, misunderestimations).
We have reproduced TMTs comment here and interlined comments. That is the fastest way to deal with the issues.
“Maybe I'm still missing something - wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last.
“But assuming, for the moment, that Balanced Communities are the "natural" or "intended" way.”
Perhaps “most efficient” or “most likely to meet the needs of the largest percentage of the population at the lowest total economic, social and physical cost” would be a better way to characterize a sustainable New Urban Region composed of Balanced Communities.
“My question is then: How are balanced communities to be implemented?”
Jim Bacon outlines three good principles in his post. In The Shape of the Future, EMR lays out six Overarching Strategies that provide a comprehensive context for achieving Balance.
The first step is to understand that achieving Balance will be to everyone’s benefit and the failure to achieve Balance will result in Collapse.
“Having lived in the Midwest and Great Plains for many years, I know from personal observation that there is plenty of room in many states to the west of the Eastern Seaboard and to the east of the Left Coast.”
Here is the first issue that needs to be nailed down: There is “plenty of room” not just in the Midwest and the Great Plains but right here in the National Capital Subregion. There is a vast amount of vacant and underutilized land for which the public has already provided infrastructure. Check out Blueprint.
EMR prepared a PowerPoint on this topic (“Five Critical Issues”). No one has (nor could they) dispute the calculations. All they can say is “I would rather not live in a dwelling in the patterns and at the density that the market demonstrates is in the greatest demand.” This pattern is, by the way Balanced at the Alpha Community scale and it functions / performs well.
Jim Bacon and EMR say: “Live where you what and as you want so long as you pay the fair cost.” The 12.5 Percenters do not like it but 87.5 percent is a majority and if they do not want to go with the majority, all they have to do is pay the cost.
“Should it be the policy of the United States to push population and even job growth to "Fly-over Country"?”
No, No, No. The markets shows the vast majority do not want to live in Fly-over Country. That is why it is Fly-over Country.
Some do want to live there and there is no reason they cannot build Balanced Communities there. However, it should not because “policy” pushes them there.
There is another reason besides the value of free choice. That reason is that the cost of contemporary society is vastly more than anyone is now paying. That is why there is huge debt -- public and private -- but what is being paid plus what is being barrowed now is not nearly the total cost. If ‘policy’ starts pushing citizens where they do not want to go it will cost far more.
“What if it would be much less expensive to triple the population of North Dakota than to build a mixed use Tysons Corner?”
No, not even close. How much would they have to pay you to move to Fargo? OK you are from Fargo and want to return but only 1 out of 7,346 are in that situation. The market says; the Creative Class says; common sense says: Go to the best places.
“Should immigration reform be tied to "settling the great open middle"?
No, no, no. There is no need “settle” anyplace. Over 95 percent of the population is Urban and to house the entire Urban population of the US of A requires less than 5 percent of the total land area of the Lower 48 at MINIMUM densities.
“For example, just as with homesteading in the 19th century...”
You could have a lot of that homestead land right now for NonUrban activities – really cheap. If you want to use it for Urban purposes the cost will be huge.
“... should Obama propose "amnesty" to any person who lived here illegally for five years or more, but only if she/he lives in a place such as Iowa or Wyoming for five more years?”
Of course not.
“Should new immigration permits be conditioned on settling in Montana or Arkansas?”
Only if the immigrants have skills that will evolve Balanced Communities in Montana and Arkansas and that is where they want to go.
“Should Congress enact a law that says 50% of federal agency staffs must be located in either the Central or Mountain Time Zones?”
No, see note on cost above.
That does not say that for some Agency purposes it would be more efficient to have facilities in small New Urban Regions or in Communities in Urban Support Regions but the function should dictate the location. And be prepared to pay bonuses to those who do not end up in desirable Communities and the most desirable Communities are Balanced Communities.
“Should Fairfax County simply say, "We've grown as big as we are going to get. The next big building boom must occur in Fairfax, Minnesota or Fairfax, Ohio."
Fairfax County’s problems are rooted in settlement pattern dysfunction and lack of Balance, not over-population. Over-population is what dysfunction looks like to those who do not understand human settlement patterns and have let an inequitable allocation of costs line the wrong pockets.
“If we recoil at all or some of these programs as being violative of free choice, why is so-called 'Smart Growth' being rammed down people's throats?”
So far as EMR is aware no “smart growth” policy or program has been established in any jurisdiction where the elected representatives did not believe that the majority of the citizens supported those policies. There may be cases where the governance practitioners believe that the majority would support these policies if they knew what was good for them but by the time “smart growth” is an issue, the majority do support it. Yes, most want the change in someone else’s Neighborhood, not theirs but few favor "dumb growth."
“Is "Smart Growth" just an alliance between those who hate autos and suburbs and the landowners/developers who want to make money, but don't want to move west, or south or wherever?”
You know the answer to that. But if it is the case, then the alliance is the majority in the jurisdiction where it occurs.
EMR
Saturday, January 17, 2009
BACK TO HOUSING
Jim Bacon’s 9 January post “Fewer Homes, Smaller Homes” makes a number of useful points. It is a shame that the discussion wandered off into the wasteland of Abstract Belief Tank Topics unrelated to the original post. These topics will be moot in the future if there is Fundamental Transformation. There will be no future without Fundamental Transformation. Why waste the bytes?
Housing is back on the front page of WaPo today: “The Crash: What Went Wrong; The Growing Foreclosure Crisis.”
The opening teaser reads: “One oft-repeated assertion no longer holds true. Those in trouble are not, primarily, lower-income borrowers. The foreclosure crisis has become a wave, afflicting neighborhoods [sic – note small “n”] of every stripe – but particularly communities [sic – note small “c”] created by the boom itself.”*
Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location.
If you do not understand that the evolving “news” supports what EMR has (and to a large extent, Jim Bacon has) been saying about the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis for half a dozen years then increase your Geographic Illiteracy medications.
If you do not understand, you do have an excuse. As pointed out in PART EIGHT Chapter 27 of TRILO-G:
“Conventional ‘regional’ mapping is based on municipal and state boundary geography and 18th century horseback perceptions of spacial relationships.” The data derived from the municipal, state, federal, and Enterprise geographic categories such as municipal borders, election districts, state borders, large Census agglomerations, zip codes, Area Codes and service areas are nearly useless in understanding fundamental economic, social and physical relationships.”
* Which is it? “neighborhood” or “community” Without a robust Vocabulary even discussion of human settlement pattern issue is a wasteland. Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns requires a comprehensive Conceptual Framework and a Vocabulary with which to discuss that Framework.
EMR
Housing is back on the front page of WaPo today: “The Crash: What Went Wrong; The Growing Foreclosure Crisis.”
The opening teaser reads: “One oft-repeated assertion no longer holds true. Those in trouble are not, primarily, lower-income borrowers. The foreclosure crisis has become a wave, afflicting neighborhoods [sic – note small “n”] of every stripe – but particularly communities [sic – note small “c”] created by the boom itself.”*
Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location.
If you do not understand that the evolving “news” supports what EMR has (and to a large extent, Jim Bacon has) been saying about the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis for half a dozen years then increase your Geographic Illiteracy medications.
If you do not understand, you do have an excuse. As pointed out in PART EIGHT Chapter 27 of TRILO-G:
“Conventional ‘regional’ mapping is based on municipal and state boundary geography and 18th century horseback perceptions of spacial relationships.” The data derived from the municipal, state, federal, and Enterprise geographic categories such as municipal borders, election districts, state borders, large Census agglomerations, zip codes, Area Codes and service areas are nearly useless in understanding fundamental economic, social and physical relationships.”
* Which is it? “neighborhood” or “community” Without a robust Vocabulary even discussion of human settlement pattern issue is a wasteland. Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns requires a comprehensive Conceptual Framework and a Vocabulary with which to discuss that Framework.
EMR
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
THE TRAGEDY OF TRICKLE DOWN
As the Wealth Gap has widened over the past 35 years, Organizations have become more and more addicted to Trickle Down. It is now clear that Trickle Down is not working for Enterprises, Agencies and Institutions. More important, Trickle Down is not working for individual citizens or society in general.
The addiction to Trickle Down primarily ensnares Enterprises in the mobility and shelter sectors of the economy. But it has now spread like a global cancer to other Enterprises as well as Agencies and Institutions are also hooked. In fact, Agencies at the municipal, state and federal levels are the primary enablers of the addiction.
The immediate result of Trickle Down addiction is that citizens have been forced to rely more and more on Trickle Down for both mobility and shelter. The overarching result is the acceleration of the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis. Now the entire Global / trading block / nation-state / Regional economic structure is on a downward spiral and will Collapse unless a cure to Trickle Down addiction is found.
MOBILITY
Because of ever more dysfunctional human settlement patterns – at all scales form the Unit and the Dooryard to the Subregion and Region – citizens NEED large numbers of vehicles to achieve even rudimentary levels of Mobility and Access. Vehicles – many of them private vehicles – are the only way most citizens have to Access Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity – in other words everything upon which contemporary civilization depends.
Autonomobile Enterprises make the most money from Large, Private Vehicles – the larger and the more expensive the more profit.
Most citizens who NEED vehicles cannot afford large, expensive Autonomobiles. For this reason the Autonomobile Enterprises build vehicles not for those who NEED vehicles but for those who can afford them and can be convinced that they DESIRE them. The tragically failed theory was that over time, the vehicles will TRICKLE DOWN to citizens who NEED them.
Autonomobile advertisements tout the glories of the high end vehicles. Right now, YES TODAY! YOU can buy “The most powerful Acura EVER!” Do you NEED a powerful Acura?
There is now the opportunity to choose from a stupendous array of vehicles that will haul 5 or 7 people under all sorts of adverse conditions. The vast majority of citizens NEED vehicles to carry at most three or four people when the conditions are not adverse. Most Large, Private Vehicles are occupied by only one person the majority of the time. Average private vehicle occupancy is less than two under almost all conditions. If one wants to feel REALLY green they can get a 5500 pound ‘hybrid’ to drive solo.
Do you want a truck? YOU can buy a pickup with a 362 horsepower Hemi engine. Most pickup ‘trucks’ carry 1 horsepower loads. MainStream Media’s advertising shows pickups traveling through deserts and over poorly maintained routes with exploding buildings, massive I-beam pendulums and other uncommon roadway obstacles.
Charge truck owners the true, total cost of hauling the full load capacity of trucks and see now many REALLY NEED a dualie to haul a few tools. But NO!! That would reduce the sales of DESIRE vehicles and force Enterprises to sell NEED vehicles.
TRAJECTORY OF AUTONOMOBILE ENTERPRISES
WaPo says “Detroit Overhauling its Image: Auto Show take Sharp Turn From Glitz to Green” (Saturday, 10 Jan 2009) but you would not know that from the Show’s top of the line “car of the year” or from the GT 500s, “Zs” and the other vehicles featured in the stories out of Detroit the week of the show.
The decades of addiction to Trickle Down has established an economic context that makes it apparently impossible to change course, even with billions federal in bailouts. The same author who wrote about Detroit turning green on Saturday says (correctly) on Monday that the “Road to Fuel Efficiency Is Lined With Orange Cones: Automakers’ New Designs Face Obstacles.” A 362 horsepower Hemi or a 5500 pound ‘hybrid’ will NOT overcome these obstacles.
On Tuesday the same WaPo reporter says “GM Puts a Charge in Auto Show.” The ‘charge’ comes from new battery technology that allows vehicles to go farther and faster. New technology to go farther and faster is all the rage – expensive batteries in expensive vehicles.
Those who NEED a vehicle do not NEED one to go farther and faster, they NEED one to go safer and cheaper.
Those who NEED a vehicle cannot afford faster and farther. A nation-state that has squandered its natural capital on Mass OverConsumption cannot afford to buy them one that goes faster and farther much less citizens them pay to use and maintain the vehicle so they can survive dysfunctional settlement configurations until they evolve to be more functional.
And speaking of money: It is said that there is no money for “investment” in capital goods and that Agencies need to pump more money into circulation. Autonomobile buyers can TODAY pay “Zero Down,” they can just “Sign and Drive.” Does that sound like a “SubPrime” strategy for Mobility?
It is not just the Autonomobile Enterprises that are addicted to bigger and more expensive vehicles. The big news out of the 2009 International Consumer Electronic Show (in Las Vegas, of course) was “In-car Computing.” What society needs is out-of-car life, not in-car anything. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.
THE TRICKLE DOWN BOTTOM LINE
Every new vehicles one sees in MainStream Media’s advertisements is loaded with features that foster Geographic Illiteracy and provide a false sense of invulnerability in poor driving conditions. Even Smart Cars have heated seats. And that gets back to the real problem with Trickle Down:
By time these new vehicles are 10 years old – and those who NEED a vehicle can afford these vehicles – many of the safety, fuel economy features (and the heated seats) that made them so expensive in the first place will not work.
What citizens NEED are small, sturdy vehicles to get them where they NEED to go while the human settlement patterns evolves so that soon they can go less far and NEED to go there less often in order to secure the requirements of a quality life. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS
After all, that is what those at the top of the Ziggurat do. They live, work and play in places that do not require an Autonomobile to meet every Mobility and Access requirement. Those who have a choice favor places with functional settlement patterns. These are places that the market demonstrates are by far the most popular. And the market is important, right?
SHELTER
Trickle Down has an even larger and more important impact on shelter. There are many citizens who NEED better housing. They NEED housing near Jobs / Services / Recreation / Amenity.
Because of a simple-minded focus on one metric (percentage of home ownership) instead of a focus on expanding the supply of Affordable and Accessible Housing, Agencies have pumped billions into the shelter industry. In addition, Agencies deprived themselves of billions in revenue by providing tax breaks on mortgage interest – primarily for those at the top of the Ziggurat. AND they have spent billions on paper mache infrastructure that supports – in fact, is useless without – Autonomobiles.
The cumulative result is scattering the Wrong Size House in the Wrong Locations. Just the opposite of what citizens who NEED housing REALLY NEED.
Citizens would be willing and able to pay for Affordable and Accessible Housing but for policies, programs and incentives that foster dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See “Wild Abandonment,” 8 September 2003 (Column # 15), “Scatteration,” 25 September 2003 (Column # 16 and “The Myths that Blind Us,” 20 October 2003 (Column # 18). These column have been updated and will appear as PART ONE – ROOTS OF THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS in TRILO-G.
The rapid and continuing Global financial system meltdown is a direct result of the failure of Trickle Down housing and the greed catalyzed by a simplistic approach a complex problem rooted in dysfunctional human settlement patterns.
THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS AND THE THIRD ELEMENT OF FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION
It is not surprising that Trickle Down in mobility and in shelter has resulted in making the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis far worse over the last 35 years. These two crises have now become an integral part of the Helter Skelter Crisis.
There is no conceivable way to preserve democracy with a widening Wealth Gap. There is no conceivable way to narrow the Wealth Gap or reverse the current unsustainable trajectory of civilization without successfully addressing the Helter Skelter Crisis.
For over two decades EMR has been articulating the need for Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns. The PROPERTY DYNAMICS process identified the need for a Fundamental Transformation in governance structures. The current world-wide financial crisis – recession or depression depending on to whom one listens – make it obvious that there must be a need for a third element of Fundamental Transformation:
Fundamental Transformation of the economic structure
First, things first. The priorities must very be clear: A governance system must have full democratic processes that create, maintain and insure a Balance between individual rights and community responsibilities and a system that achieves a sustainable trajectory for civilization.
Most who support this overarching goal also support a market economy. That is because – to paraphrase what Winston Churchill said about democracy itself – the market system of resource allocation is the very worst system, except for all the rest that have been tried over the past 400 years.
Classical socialism, theoretical communism, compassionate conservatism and all the other “isms” do not work because they fail to reflect or account for the genetic proclivities that are hard wired into the human psyche.
WHAT WOULD DR. SMITH SAY?
The first edition of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations was published in 1776, just nine months after the US of A’s Declaration of Independence. It is clear from Smith’s editing of the book between the first and fifth editions that he was following closely the “unpleasantness” in the North American Colonies. EMR’s copy of The Wealth of Nations is the fifth edition, published in 1789, two years after the Northwest Ordinance and the same year that the Constitution was ratified by New Hampshire.
There are important parallels between the current governance structure – which many now agree is in need of Fundamental Transformation – and the current economic system.
Few suggest that “the invisible hand” was not a good idea in 1776. Smith was articulating an alternative to the nation-state protectionism and the foundering colonial, mercantile system. But in 1776 the three level structure of representative democracy was state of the art as well.
The current three level structure of representative democracy governance was a stroke of genius. However, it was created when 95 percent of the population were yeoman farmers, indentured servants and slaves. Few had the education necessary to read, write or understand concepts of governance. The three level structure of representative democracy governance functioned when it took two or more days to get from the border to the Capitol of most states and two or more weeks to get to the federal Capitol from many state capitols.
Now, society is Urban with only 5 percent engaged in NonUrban activities. Reading and writing for all is established policy, if not yet reality. Information can be exchanged instantaneously and travel is far faster. At the same time, the most important focus of economic, social and physical activity – The New Urban Region – has no governance structure to represent the interests of its citizens.
With respect to governance structure, it is not the dignity, rights and freedom of individuals and the mutual interests of citizens and their communities that are in need of Fundamental Transformation, it is the governance structure itself. Citizens need a new structure and ensure benefit from the rights, privileges and protections of the Constitution. There are now new strategies to evolve the management of society so that it is sustainable. See THE ESTATES MATRIX
It is clear that citizens cannot prosper with a governance structure (or an economy) that is dysfunctional and is opaque. Further, citizens must understand what they are seeing so they can make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the market.
The past three plus decades have demonstrated that those at the top of the Ziggurat can game the current economic system to their advantage. They have taken classic Ponzi schemes – in Enterprises, Agencies and Institutions – to the third power. The have created imaginary investment vehicles to trade and gambling venues in which to trade them. They beat Second Life to the draw and did it using other peoples money.
The current Global system is far too complex, and – and the last two years have shown – far too fragile. The current system creates paper wealth – something Dr. Smith railed against. This system subverts all markets to gambling venues.
THE ROAD AHEAD
No one questions the existence of, or the danger of, the Wealth Gap.
Equally serious is the fact that even as the Wealth Gap has widened, the economy has not performed well even using the measures that those at the top of the Ziggurat love – employment, GDP, etc. See “Economy Made Few Gains in Bush Years: Eight-Year Period Is weakest in Decades.” in WaPo 12 January 2009.
Many are not happy about the $700 billion in bailouts. But, so far they seem to be “working.” The bailouts are allowing the economy to slowly deflate. Citizens seem to be turning from Mass OverConsumers to become at least partial savers, conservationists and true conservatives.
Unbridled Winner-Take-All competition and SuperCapitalism is a great vehicle for hyper consumption-driven pseudo prosperity but ONLY in a system with infinite resources: “I can grab as much as I want because there is always plenty left for others.” The real world does not have infinite resources and a growing number of citizens world-wide want a fair share of what is left.
As pointed out in the Backgrounder “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being,” a “new metric” is needed to replace consumption, expansion and “growth uber alles” as a measure of citizen well-being. This Backgrounder has been revised and expanded and will appear as PART FIVE of TRILO-G.
One element of this New Metric must be economic processes that are transparent so that educated citizens can understand their enlightened self-interest.
The is no question that new economic processes will slow the expansion of the economy. But slowing the process of Mass OverConsumption to a level that is sustainable is not just a good idea it is the only way to avert Collapse.
If the vast majority do not believe they have a good chance to be better off in the future, it is not a sustainable economic system for anyone. Those at the top of the Ziggurat are no longer safe from terrorists or from Madoffs.
The vast majority of all citizens must come to understand that in the future everyone will be better off with fewer total citizens and less per capita consumption.
For reasons spelled out in Volume II of The Shape of the Future, the choice is Fundamental Transformation or Collapse. Fundamental Transformation has three elements:
• Human settlement patterns
• Governance structure
• Economic structure
The focus of most governance and economic activity must devolve down to the Regional scale. Economic, social and physical activity must reflect the organic structure of human settlement.
SuperCapitalism is not sustainable. Citizens need new Institutions – Think Tanks, not “Belief Tanks” (tip of the hat to Doonesbury) and of course there must evolve citizen media. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.
It will be a long and difficult process but one of the first steps is to understand that Mass OverConsumption is not sustainable and that Trickle Down is not a way to provide Mobility and Access or Affordable and Accessible Housing.
Trickle Down drives Helter Skelter and leads to Collapse.
EMR
The addiction to Trickle Down primarily ensnares Enterprises in the mobility and shelter sectors of the economy. But it has now spread like a global cancer to other Enterprises as well as Agencies and Institutions are also hooked. In fact, Agencies at the municipal, state and federal levels are the primary enablers of the addiction.
The immediate result of Trickle Down addiction is that citizens have been forced to rely more and more on Trickle Down for both mobility and shelter. The overarching result is the acceleration of the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis. Now the entire Global / trading block / nation-state / Regional economic structure is on a downward spiral and will Collapse unless a cure to Trickle Down addiction is found.
MOBILITY
Because of ever more dysfunctional human settlement patterns – at all scales form the Unit and the Dooryard to the Subregion and Region – citizens NEED large numbers of vehicles to achieve even rudimentary levels of Mobility and Access. Vehicles – many of them private vehicles – are the only way most citizens have to Access Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity – in other words everything upon which contemporary civilization depends.
Autonomobile Enterprises make the most money from Large, Private Vehicles – the larger and the more expensive the more profit.
Most citizens who NEED vehicles cannot afford large, expensive Autonomobiles. For this reason the Autonomobile Enterprises build vehicles not for those who NEED vehicles but for those who can afford them and can be convinced that they DESIRE them. The tragically failed theory was that over time, the vehicles will TRICKLE DOWN to citizens who NEED them.
Autonomobile advertisements tout the glories of the high end vehicles. Right now, YES TODAY! YOU can buy “The most powerful Acura EVER!” Do you NEED a powerful Acura?
There is now the opportunity to choose from a stupendous array of vehicles that will haul 5 or 7 people under all sorts of adverse conditions. The vast majority of citizens NEED vehicles to carry at most three or four people when the conditions are not adverse. Most Large, Private Vehicles are occupied by only one person the majority of the time. Average private vehicle occupancy is less than two under almost all conditions. If one wants to feel REALLY green they can get a 5500 pound ‘hybrid’ to drive solo.
Do you want a truck? YOU can buy a pickup with a 362 horsepower Hemi engine. Most pickup ‘trucks’ carry 1 horsepower loads. MainStream Media’s advertising shows pickups traveling through deserts and over poorly maintained routes with exploding buildings, massive I-beam pendulums and other uncommon roadway obstacles.
Charge truck owners the true, total cost of hauling the full load capacity of trucks and see now many REALLY NEED a dualie to haul a few tools. But NO!! That would reduce the sales of DESIRE vehicles and force Enterprises to sell NEED vehicles.
TRAJECTORY OF AUTONOMOBILE ENTERPRISES
WaPo says “Detroit Overhauling its Image: Auto Show take Sharp Turn From Glitz to Green” (Saturday, 10 Jan 2009) but you would not know that from the Show’s top of the line “car of the year” or from the GT 500s, “Zs” and the other vehicles featured in the stories out of Detroit the week of the show.
The decades of addiction to Trickle Down has established an economic context that makes it apparently impossible to change course, even with billions federal in bailouts. The same author who wrote about Detroit turning green on Saturday says (correctly) on Monday that the “Road to Fuel Efficiency Is Lined With Orange Cones: Automakers’ New Designs Face Obstacles.” A 362 horsepower Hemi or a 5500 pound ‘hybrid’ will NOT overcome these obstacles.
On Tuesday the same WaPo reporter says “GM Puts a Charge in Auto Show.” The ‘charge’ comes from new battery technology that allows vehicles to go farther and faster. New technology to go farther and faster is all the rage – expensive batteries in expensive vehicles.
Those who NEED a vehicle do not NEED one to go farther and faster, they NEED one to go safer and cheaper.
Those who NEED a vehicle cannot afford faster and farther. A nation-state that has squandered its natural capital on Mass OverConsumption cannot afford to buy them one that goes faster and farther much less citizens them pay to use and maintain the vehicle so they can survive dysfunctional settlement configurations until they evolve to be more functional.
And speaking of money: It is said that there is no money for “investment” in capital goods and that Agencies need to pump more money into circulation. Autonomobile buyers can TODAY pay “Zero Down,” they can just “Sign and Drive.” Does that sound like a “SubPrime” strategy for Mobility?
It is not just the Autonomobile Enterprises that are addicted to bigger and more expensive vehicles. The big news out of the 2009 International Consumer Electronic Show (in Las Vegas, of course) was “In-car Computing.” What society needs is out-of-car life, not in-car anything. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.
THE TRICKLE DOWN BOTTOM LINE
Every new vehicles one sees in MainStream Media’s advertisements is loaded with features that foster Geographic Illiteracy and provide a false sense of invulnerability in poor driving conditions. Even Smart Cars have heated seats. And that gets back to the real problem with Trickle Down:
By time these new vehicles are 10 years old – and those who NEED a vehicle can afford these vehicles – many of the safety, fuel economy features (and the heated seats) that made them so expensive in the first place will not work.
What citizens NEED are small, sturdy vehicles to get them where they NEED to go while the human settlement patterns evolves so that soon they can go less far and NEED to go there less often in order to secure the requirements of a quality life. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS
After all, that is what those at the top of the Ziggurat do. They live, work and play in places that do not require an Autonomobile to meet every Mobility and Access requirement. Those who have a choice favor places with functional settlement patterns. These are places that the market demonstrates are by far the most popular. And the market is important, right?
SHELTER
Trickle Down has an even larger and more important impact on shelter. There are many citizens who NEED better housing. They NEED housing near Jobs / Services / Recreation / Amenity.
Because of a simple-minded focus on one metric (percentage of home ownership) instead of a focus on expanding the supply of Affordable and Accessible Housing, Agencies have pumped billions into the shelter industry. In addition, Agencies deprived themselves of billions in revenue by providing tax breaks on mortgage interest – primarily for those at the top of the Ziggurat. AND they have spent billions on paper mache infrastructure that supports – in fact, is useless without – Autonomobiles.
The cumulative result is scattering the Wrong Size House in the Wrong Locations. Just the opposite of what citizens who NEED housing REALLY NEED.
Citizens would be willing and able to pay for Affordable and Accessible Housing but for policies, programs and incentives that foster dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See “Wild Abandonment,” 8 September 2003 (Column # 15), “Scatteration,” 25 September 2003 (Column # 16 and “The Myths that Blind Us,” 20 October 2003 (Column # 18). These column have been updated and will appear as PART ONE – ROOTS OF THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS in TRILO-G.
The rapid and continuing Global financial system meltdown is a direct result of the failure of Trickle Down housing and the greed catalyzed by a simplistic approach a complex problem rooted in dysfunctional human settlement patterns.
THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS AND THE THIRD ELEMENT OF FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION
It is not surprising that Trickle Down in mobility and in shelter has resulted in making the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis far worse over the last 35 years. These two crises have now become an integral part of the Helter Skelter Crisis.
There is no conceivable way to preserve democracy with a widening Wealth Gap. There is no conceivable way to narrow the Wealth Gap or reverse the current unsustainable trajectory of civilization without successfully addressing the Helter Skelter Crisis.
For over two decades EMR has been articulating the need for Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns. The PROPERTY DYNAMICS process identified the need for a Fundamental Transformation in governance structures. The current world-wide financial crisis – recession or depression depending on to whom one listens – make it obvious that there must be a need for a third element of Fundamental Transformation:
Fundamental Transformation of the economic structure
First, things first. The priorities must very be clear: A governance system must have full democratic processes that create, maintain and insure a Balance between individual rights and community responsibilities and a system that achieves a sustainable trajectory for civilization.
Most who support this overarching goal also support a market economy. That is because – to paraphrase what Winston Churchill said about democracy itself – the market system of resource allocation is the very worst system, except for all the rest that have been tried over the past 400 years.
Classical socialism, theoretical communism, compassionate conservatism and all the other “isms” do not work because they fail to reflect or account for the genetic proclivities that are hard wired into the human psyche.
WHAT WOULD DR. SMITH SAY?
The first edition of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations was published in 1776, just nine months after the US of A’s Declaration of Independence. It is clear from Smith’s editing of the book between the first and fifth editions that he was following closely the “unpleasantness” in the North American Colonies. EMR’s copy of The Wealth of Nations is the fifth edition, published in 1789, two years after the Northwest Ordinance and the same year that the Constitution was ratified by New Hampshire.
There are important parallels between the current governance structure – which many now agree is in need of Fundamental Transformation – and the current economic system.
Few suggest that “the invisible hand” was not a good idea in 1776. Smith was articulating an alternative to the nation-state protectionism and the foundering colonial, mercantile system. But in 1776 the three level structure of representative democracy was state of the art as well.
The current three level structure of representative democracy governance was a stroke of genius. However, it was created when 95 percent of the population were yeoman farmers, indentured servants and slaves. Few had the education necessary to read, write or understand concepts of governance. The three level structure of representative democracy governance functioned when it took two or more days to get from the border to the Capitol of most states and two or more weeks to get to the federal Capitol from many state capitols.
Now, society is Urban with only 5 percent engaged in NonUrban activities. Reading and writing for all is established policy, if not yet reality. Information can be exchanged instantaneously and travel is far faster. At the same time, the most important focus of economic, social and physical activity – The New Urban Region – has no governance structure to represent the interests of its citizens.
With respect to governance structure, it is not the dignity, rights and freedom of individuals and the mutual interests of citizens and their communities that are in need of Fundamental Transformation, it is the governance structure itself. Citizens need a new structure and ensure benefit from the rights, privileges and protections of the Constitution. There are now new strategies to evolve the management of society so that it is sustainable. See THE ESTATES MATRIX
It is clear that citizens cannot prosper with a governance structure (or an economy) that is dysfunctional and is opaque. Further, citizens must understand what they are seeing so they can make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the market.
The past three plus decades have demonstrated that those at the top of the Ziggurat can game the current economic system to their advantage. They have taken classic Ponzi schemes – in Enterprises, Agencies and Institutions – to the third power. The have created imaginary investment vehicles to trade and gambling venues in which to trade them. They beat Second Life to the draw and did it using other peoples money.
The current Global system is far too complex, and – and the last two years have shown – far too fragile. The current system creates paper wealth – something Dr. Smith railed against. This system subverts all markets to gambling venues.
THE ROAD AHEAD
No one questions the existence of, or the danger of, the Wealth Gap.
Equally serious is the fact that even as the Wealth Gap has widened, the economy has not performed well even using the measures that those at the top of the Ziggurat love – employment, GDP, etc. See “Economy Made Few Gains in Bush Years: Eight-Year Period Is weakest in Decades.” in WaPo 12 January 2009.
Many are not happy about the $700 billion in bailouts. But, so far they seem to be “working.” The bailouts are allowing the economy to slowly deflate. Citizens seem to be turning from Mass OverConsumers to become at least partial savers, conservationists and true conservatives.
Unbridled Winner-Take-All competition and SuperCapitalism is a great vehicle for hyper consumption-driven pseudo prosperity but ONLY in a system with infinite resources: “I can grab as much as I want because there is always plenty left for others.” The real world does not have infinite resources and a growing number of citizens world-wide want a fair share of what is left.
As pointed out in the Backgrounder “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being,” a “new metric” is needed to replace consumption, expansion and “growth uber alles” as a measure of citizen well-being. This Backgrounder has been revised and expanded and will appear as PART FIVE of TRILO-G.
One element of this New Metric must be economic processes that are transparent so that educated citizens can understand their enlightened self-interest.
The is no question that new economic processes will slow the expansion of the economy. But slowing the process of Mass OverConsumption to a level that is sustainable is not just a good idea it is the only way to avert Collapse.
If the vast majority do not believe they have a good chance to be better off in the future, it is not a sustainable economic system for anyone. Those at the top of the Ziggurat are no longer safe from terrorists or from Madoffs.
The vast majority of all citizens must come to understand that in the future everyone will be better off with fewer total citizens and less per capita consumption.
For reasons spelled out in Volume II of The Shape of the Future, the choice is Fundamental Transformation or Collapse. Fundamental Transformation has three elements:
• Human settlement patterns
• Governance structure
• Economic structure
The focus of most governance and economic activity must devolve down to the Regional scale. Economic, social and physical activity must reflect the organic structure of human settlement.
SuperCapitalism is not sustainable. Citizens need new Institutions – Think Tanks, not “Belief Tanks” (tip of the hat to Doonesbury) and of course there must evolve citizen media. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.
It will be a long and difficult process but one of the first steps is to understand that Mass OverConsumption is not sustainable and that Trickle Down is not a way to provide Mobility and Access or Affordable and Accessible Housing.
Trickle Down drives Helter Skelter and leads to Collapse.
EMR
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