CUBA AND THE NEW FRU

MainStream Media reports that President-Elect Obama will support a Change in relations with Cuba. It is about time.

And just in time. Every region will need to import some Cubans, not for cheap labor as in the past but for their ingenuity in converting Mass OverConsumptive Technology to sustainable levels.

With the New Fru, every place that hopes to evolve to become a Balanced Community will need a Cuban New Fru Guru.

Cubans have demonstrated how humans can be (relatively) happy in spite of:

• Having to rely on pre-1957 Large, Private Vehicles,

• A demented dictator, and

• Oppressive foreign intervention.

These are all things that will be important to every citizen of the US of A due to the past 35 years of Growth-is-Good-but-More-Growth-is-Better driven Supercapitalism and Mass OverConsumption that underlies the New Fru.

Now Cubans have focused on saving money in communications. See today’s WaPo Page 1 “In Cuba, Cellphone Calls Go Unanswered."

This new technique should make driving safer for those who will still be able to afford to drive Large, Private Vehicles.

(By the way Peter, WordPerfect tells EMR that WaPo has just invented a new word and saved space – they dropped the space between ‘cell’ and ‘phone.’)

EMR

The New Fru and Fundamental Change

As part of my job for the Boomer Project, I survey the media and blogs for emerging trends. One unmistakable trajectory is the increased commentary on what EMR and I would call the "end of the era of mass overconsumption." Others have given catchier names to the phenomenon, but it all amounts to the same thing: The era of unsustainable, debt-fueled consumption in the American economy is over. In contrast to the past two recessions, consumer spending will not rebound stronger than ever. Consumers are fundamentally re-evaluating the idea that accumulating more stuff is the path to happiness.

Matt Thornhill, a principal of the Boomer Project, sees the rise of what he has labelled "responsible consumerism" and, alternatively, the "new fru" (for new frugality). Personally, I find the second term more memorable. Responsible consumerism sounds like more people reading Consumer Reports. New Fru sounds like people embracing frugality as a positive virtue, which is, in fact, what I think more and more people are doing.

As Matt elaborates the concept in a Times-Dispatch op-ed piece, "Age of Responsible Consumerism Begins," the spreading rejection of mindless consumption will persist beyond the cyclical tightening of credit. Writes Matt:

We saw this seismic shift coming a generation away. Members of both the G.I. and Silent generations, those now ages 63 and older, led the way by reducing their own consumption of goods and services as they grew older. Their desires shifted as they reached 50 and then 60: fewer material goods, more enriching experiences. Fast on their heels comes the largest, wealthiest, and most important demographic group America has even seen. Boomers, raised in front of television sets, a target for marketers from age 5 upward, are now reaching 60 at the rate of one every eight seconds.

That's right. The generation that put the mass into consumption is now at the stage of life where people naturally shift focus from the material to the ethereal. What's fascinating (or worrisome, if you're in a retail or consumer-products business) is that the impact of this shift on America's consumption-driven economy is just beginning.

But wait, there's more: This shift away from spending by our largest demographic group coincides with a larger societal trend toward sustainability. Consumers of all ages are thinking more about the environmental impact of their purchase behavior and consumption patterns. In a national study we conducted among all adults in late summer, before the economic meltdown, 80 percent of all consumers told us they think or act in a "green," or environmentally responsible fashion. Green is mainstream, and here to stay. Today's consumers want to be responsible in their consumption. They crave sustainability, not planned obsolescence. They focus increasingly on "needs" and not "wants."

Arguably the most profound shift in American values since the 1960s, the New Fru will lay the groundwork for Fundamental Change. Now, think through the implications. If consumers become more parsimonious, finding happiness in life from sources other than the accumulation of stuff, the long-term decline in consumer spending will send ripples -- tidal waves, more likely -- across the economy and the governance system built upon it. Here in Virginia, we need to prepare ourselves for several foreseeable consequences:

• As the retail sector shrinks, there will be fewer retail jobs -- an entry point for many Virginians into the workforce.


• As retail sales shrivel, so will revenues from the sales tax. Government services that depend upon the sales tax for funding will be more fiscally challenged than services that rely upon, say, the income tax for a funding stream.


• As retail chains contract, demand for retial space in malls and shopping centers will evaporate. Vacancies will rise. Investment in retail development and re-development will plummet. That, in turn, will hurt municipalities that depend upon their commercial property tax base for revenue.

These changes are bearing down on us like a freight train. There is no wishing them away. Governance practitioners have no excuse for getting caught off guard.

Weight Matters

In 2007, trucks paid $2.7 million in fees for permits to operate in excess of Virginia's vehicle weight limits. But that number fell far short of the estimated $211.4 million that heavy loads did to the state's roads that year, according to Gary Allen, head of the Virginia Transportation Research Council.

Although Allen didn't put it quite this way, it appears that Virginia motorists are subsidizing heavy trucks to the tune of more than $200 million a year by failing to levy appropriate fees.

According to Peter Bacque in a Dec. 22 article in the Times-Dispatch, the Virginia Department of Transportation is recommending an increase in overweight-vehicle fees but is not pushing for the big rigs to pay their full freight. "Stakeholders raised concerns regarding current economic conditions, the competitiveness of Virginia's ports and the difficulty in some industries of avoiding overweight loads," said David S. Ekern, transportation commissioner.

Same old story. A special interest group receives a long-standing subsidy from the public, the subsidy becomes an entitlement, the special interest cries hardship when someone tries to curtail the subsidy, politicians back off, and everyday taxpayers pay through the nose.

Here's what Allen's research revealed: A heavily loaded tractor-trailer produces 8,000 to 9,000 times as much damage to highways and bridges as a passenger car does.

The deterioration of Virginia's bridges, wrote Bacque, was traced mainly to the 30,000 vehicles (operating with permits) that weighed more than the loads for which the bridges were designed. Based on Allen's calculations, a tractor-trailer weighing 116,000 pounds traveling the length of the 325-mile Interstate 81 and crossing its 58 bridges should pay $142.67 for the trip.

A long-running theme of this blog is that transportation policy should be based upon user-pays principles. The public should press the General Assembly to require trucks to pay the full cost of their heavy loads.

Admittedly, the calculations on what constitutes a "fair" fee can get tricky. Dale Bennett, lobbyist for the Virginia Trucking Association, notes that the VDOT study is "based on a lot of assumptions." Probably so. But let's see the VTA comes up with better assumptions. New assumptions might change the numbers on the margin, but they're unlikely to alter the fact that trucks are not paying the full costs they incur.

Bottom line: Shippers need to pay higher fees -- or use lighter trucks.

The True Spirit of Islam

I've got a big backlog of stories that I hope to get to this long New Year's weekend. Some, like this, are a bit out of date. But better late than never.

Does anybody remember the terrorist siege of Mumbai? Definitely yesterday's news. But there's a local angle that's worth bringing to your attention. By way of preface, we often read criticisms of American Muslims for sitting quietly on the sidelines when radical Islamists commit terrorist acts. Well, I think it's worth noting that a league of Virginia Muslims -- many of whom are South Asians -- has spoken out in the strongest possible terms.

From Dr. Imad Damaj, president of the Muslim Coalition for Public Affairs:

It is with an utmost sadness and shock that we received the news of the terrorists’ attacks in India in the eve of Thanksgiving.

The Virginia Muslim Coalition for Public Affairs strongly condemns and denounces these criminal acts and expresses its sincere words of comfort and feelings of sympathy and sadness for the loss of all innocent lives in India.

We extend our heartfelt condolences to all the families of the victims and in particular to the family of our fellow Virginian, Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg and his wife.

Regardless of who was involved, the people who carried these attacks out are people with no sense of humanity or morality. They can claim the Religion of Islam as their creed, but their actions go against the fundamental spirit of Islam, which promotes a culture of life and humanity, not bloodshed and violence.

Bravo.

MORE ON MainStream Media's DEFAULT

Further thoughts on MainStream Media’s culpability vis a vis Collapse of the global financial house of cards:

The previous post (IT is MainStream Media’s FAULT) engendered a number of useful observations concerning financial Collapse and the role of the Media:

REID ON THE RIGHT TRACK

At 6:37 AM on 30 December, Reid Greenum put his finger on a key issue: Greed.

He is right to rail against individual greed, but there are two kinds of greed.

The individual moral shortcoming that Reid is concerned about AND

The systemic, institutionalized (small ‘eye’) greed that is a key to the ‘success’ of Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions in the Friedman-Flat-Earth economy. Robert Reich documents this form of greed in Supercapitalism.

Organizational greed could be controlled by enlightened citizens through Agencies but at the current time this systemic problem is the more important of the twin manifestations of greed.

That is because it impacts almost every one of the Planet’s 6.3 billion citizens and because it is seen as a virtue by Business-As-Usual and Politics-As-Usual advocates – especially Consumption-Uber-Ales, pseudo-conservatives.

While systemic greed could be contained by enlightened Agency action, individual greed is genetically hardwired into humans. That is because what we now call ‘greed’ served humans well in most Hunter / Gather and Early Agrarian Societies.

On the other hand, the greed proclivities lead to unsustainable consequences in an Urban society – Mass OverConsumption and dysfunctional human settlement patterns. In a Driven-to-a-Frenzy-by-Technology Urban Society, there are too many choices; too many opportunities to do something “because I can.” This dire circumstance is often are mistaken for ‘freedom.’

That is why greed of both sorts must be controlled in the context of functional human settlement patterns. It flourishes in disaggregated and dysfunctional settlement patterns. More on that in a moment.

The flip side of both kinds of greed is ignorance. That is because even the most greedy individual or Organization will constrain their proclivities and desires if they know they will suffer more than they will benefit. Note the current course of consumer confidence and consumer spending...

This is where MainStream Media comes in. The Enterprises that control MainStream Media benefit from citizen ignorance. If citizens and Organizations fail to understand the cumulative consequence of their actions they will continue to over-spend, over-barrow and in other ways feed Enterprise greed.

BUT WHAT OF HUMAN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS?

If one does not understand human settlement patterns, they will not comprehend why the pattern and distribution of human activities is a key issue with respect to economic Collapse.

Saying dysfunctional human settlement patterns is not in play with respect to financial Collapse is like saying gravity had no role in killing Uncle Pete when he fell down three flights of stairs last News Years Eve. One can blame the rotten banister and too much moonshine, however, but for gravity, Uncle Pete would be alive this New Years Eve.

Saying dysfunctional human settlement patterns is not in play with respect to financial Collapse is like saying electro-magnetic fields do not effect radio reception. But for electro-magnetic fields there would be no radio.

In fact one way to come to understand the economic, social and physical impact of human settlement patterns is to understand gravitational forces and magnetic fields via celestial mechanics and physics.

The first 350 pages in the first Volume of The Shape of the Future detail why human settlement pattern has controlling impact on the economic, social and physical well being of citizens.

THE ROLE OF SETTLEMENT PATTERNS IS SUPPORTING ETHICAL BEHAVIOR

Reid is also correct about “ethics” playing a key role in economic Collapse. But it is not just the “family” that has fallen apart and is not providing an ethical rudder.

Back to human settlement patterns. It takes a Dooryard, Cluster, Neighborhood, Village and Community to engender and support ethical behavior. The more complex the society, the more important each of the organic components of human settlement become.

For a snapshot of what has happened to ‘family,’ see definition of Household in GLOSSARY as to why EMR stopped using the word “family” as in Single Household Attached Dwelling.

As Reid points out, ethics is important. That is not clear with respect to “religion.” There are a lot of citizens going to places of worship – on several different days a week – but few who practice their beliefs in the market or on the highways.


OTHER COMMENTS

Several other observations following the IT IS MainStream Media’s FAULT post deserve a note:

Larry Gross at 3:57 PM on 30 December:

Larry is right on with respect to the federal income tax mortgage deduction!

When Larry finally gets around to reading The Shape of the Future he will see that the mortgage deduction is high on the list of damaging subsidies driving dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

The last time EMR looked, something like 90 of benefit of the deduction went to top 20 percent of the Ziggurat. EMR has no problem with well considered Agency help for those in need of shelter assistance but those are the wrong folks to help. In fact they are the only one who do not need help.

There is absolutely no justification for the subsidy other than Business-As-Usual and driving Mass OverConsumption.

Larry will not admit it but this is another major cause of putting The Size Wrong House In The Wrong Location.

Larry Gross, 8:54 AM on 29 Dec:

It is not just citizens READING the wrong stuff. MainStream Media has other outlets besides material that is “read.”

It is hearing and seeing the wrong stuff and reading, hearing and seeing it over and over again – all slanted to encourage consumption and Mass OverConsumption.

NovaMiddleMan, 9:49 AM on 29 Dec:

NMM said... (“In quotes”)

“MSM is not relevant anymore.”

Some may wish that were true but if so, why are billions spent on advertising?

And if MainStream Media goes away tomorrow, where would citizens get any information? From self-serving, dysfunctional Agencies without geographic legitimacy? From Institutions funded by those who want to drive their own agenda? From the other Enterprises that do not even pretend to provide useful information? From Alternative Media? From Anti-media?

Achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization requires that new “citizen media” take over the abandoned Fourth Estate before there is no source of information. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

“People say other people read the wrong stuff because you can pick whatever "news" you want”

Now, there is an important statement! Reading only what one wants to believe is worse than reading what MainStream Media presents as ‘balanced’ – if that is possible.

“‘News’ anymore is just another wing of politics.”

No, it is not just Agency babble (aka, politics) but also and even more important Enterprise babble and Institution babble.

At 3:07 PM on 29 Dec MIGHTYBIGMEDIA provides a nice summary.

And in the meantime WaPo has concluded today (31 December) a “balanced” three part series on the crash of AIG and credit default swaps (CDSs). This follows up on their coverage of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) on 16 December and the three part series on The Housing Bubble in June.

Again, WaPo did not get to the root causes. They tut-tut over the wreckage and have nice photos of the scape goats.

Interestingly, on 28 December the front page of the Business section of WaPo ran a great graphic showing how responsible, conservative, saving citizens have had no place to “invest” for a decade. Nothing but the ups and downs of gambling venues.

And to this day, there is nothing to encourage conservative citizens to save, or reward those who have saved.

Happy New Year.

EMR

IT IS MainStream Media's FAULT

A teaser on the front page of today’s WaPo says:

“Outlook
“Feeding a Gloomy Monster
“Research shows that media news reports can affect consumer confidence. So how much of the current recession is the media’s fault?”

The answer is simple:

MainStream Media is largely responsible for the current economic crisis.

But not for the reasons that Eric Weiner explores in his story “The Year of Living Gloomily: The recession is bad enough. A relentless news cycle is making it worse.”

Most of what Weiner is true, or mostly true, and is well worth reading. But Weiner’s ‘reasons’ only spotlight the pitfalls of creating a Regional, nation-state or Global economies that are driven primarily by consumer consumption – when the consumers are uninformed about the cumulative consequences of their actions.

The truth is citizens do not pay all that much attention to “the news.” That has been documented by a much larger body of research than the one Weiner cites. MainStream Media likes to pretend that citizens pay close attention to their content and thus their advertising. That is the only way they can sell advertising. That is also why they run stories like Weiner’s rather than drilling down to the real causes of civilizations dysfunctions and it discontents.

Sure, bad “news” feeds on itself and saturation coverage leverages bad decisions for the reasons that Weiner outlines. However, what is REALLY driving down the consumption-dependent economy is what is happening in:

The Household – “We owe more on the mortgage than the house is worth.” “Our monthly out-go exceeds our in-come.” “Our credit interest card rate just went up again.” “We cannot refinance again to get cash to pay the doctor bills, buy a new car or make a weekly trip to Charlestown Races and Slots.

The Dooryard – “Joe and Martha have filled for bankruptcy.” “The people across the street cannot afford to get their roof fixed.”

The Cluster – “Did you see what that house on the next street is listed for?”

The Neighborhood – “Two more stores closed at the Neighborhood Center.” “Wal*Mart has that for a dollar less.” See “THE PROBLEM WITH CARS – Learning from Big Boxes.”

The job – “There is talk of more layoffs at the office.”

The family – “Our daughter who went off to with her new college degree to Atlanta and then started a business with her partner said at Christmas dinner that she may have to move back ...” “Great Grandad did not put a college fund check in each great grandchild’s holiday card because his retirement account is frozen by the bank...”

And in the Village, the Community and the Region.

In other words what is driving down the economy is...

The unsustainable consumer driven economy.

So why is MainStream Media to blame?

As noted above, citizens and their Organizations (aka, consumers) are uninformed about the cumulative consequences of their actions – the cumulative impact with the most widespread and unsustainable impact is dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

Telling citizens the truth about Mass OverConsumption kills MainStream Media ad revenue.

As noted in GENERATIONAL GENERALIZATION:

The emerging reality is Collapse of the Mass OverConsumption ‘civilization.’ It is on the brink of Collapse because those at the top of the Ziggurat have been wasting Natural Capital to:

• Pay the total cost of a ‘driven-to-frenzy-by-technology’ society, much of which has been written off as ‘externalities,’ and

• Subsidize the full cost of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

The role of MainStream Media is complex. One view is spelled out in THE ESTATES MATRIX. Since 1973 MainStream Media has abandoned the Fourth Estate become a Second Estate Enterprise. Since MainStream Media must live off of advertising, truth about the impact of Mass OverConsumption is toxic. Every MainStream Media employee knows that illuminating reality is cutting their own throat.

MainStream Media driving consumption drives profits and profits buy the publishers / owners of Media Enterprises trout fishing retreats in Montana and the fox hunting estates in the Piedmont.

That is not “bad” if citizens had the information they need to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the marketplace.

Citizens do not have that information.

Those who like to think it is their duty to inform ‘the public’ are out of a job and / or will lose their job if they challenge the Myths that “growth and consumption raises all boats” and that “competition without an informed market fairly – or sustainablely – allocates resources.”

EMR