$3.2 Billion Shortfall -- Just Business As Usual

The grim news just doesn't quit. From today's Times-Dispatch:

The Senate Finance Committee of the Virginia General Assembly is projecting a budget shortfall of at least $3.2 billion for the 2008-10 biennial budget -- an even bleaker projection than the $2.5 billion Gov. Timothy M. Kaine had forecast previously.

Had enough Business As Usual? Tired of "muddling through" by spending more money on the same old failed solutions and shoring up the same old broken institutions?

Fundamental Change, anyone?

When the CFLs Go On

On Sunday, I drew attention to a power industry-backed study that forecast widespread blackouts and brownouts within a few years unless more electric infrastructure is built. (See "When the Lights Go Out.") Although I didn't endorse the findings of the report, I did say that we need to take such fears seriously. We have much to lose if the dire warnings prove true.

Now comes news that those brownouts and blackouts may not be quite so imminent. The Wall Street Journal reported today that electric utility executives are scratching their heads over shrinking power use by households and businesses in pockets across the country, wondering if they reflect "a permanent shift in consumption" that will force the industry to revise expansion plans predicated on projected one- to two-percent annual growth.

The decline in consumption cannot be easily explained by weather conditions or even the recession. Duke Energy Corp., for instance, said its Midwest operations saw a 5.9 percent decline in electricity sales in the 3Q compared to same-quarter sales a year before. Said Duke CEO Jim Rogers: "Something fundamental is going on."

That something fundamental might be called energy conservation. Consumers have embraced CFL light bulbs on a wide scale. I've installed them in about half the lights in my house, and my electric bills have been running lower. They do make a difference. Meanwhile, businesses are spending billions of dollars on building automation systems in projects driven by energy cost savings. The business where my wife works, Tridium, is enjoying a banner year this year, largely on the basis of its software platform used in building automation.

Dominion wasn't quoted in the WSJ article, and Virginia may be an exception to the trend. But stuttering electric demand does give heft to the argument advanced by the Piedmont Environmental Council that energy conservation can make a difference here and now, and that Dominion's projections of intermittent blackouts in Northern Virginia may be flawed. If the PEC is right, there may be no justification for the electric transmission line that Dominion wants so badly to build.

Virginians don't follow the metrics of electricity consumption. There is no single benchmark price, like the cost of a barrel of oil, that we can readily latch on to. But we need to start paying attention. We have to thread a narrow, avoiding both overinvesting in electric infrastructure, which runs up our electric rates, and underinvesting, which exposes us to brownouts and blackouts. Either way, we have a lot riding on sound public policy.

FURTHER NOTE ON HOUSING

On 9 November we posted “WRONG SIZE HOUSE, WRONG LOCATION.

Subsequently, we promised to add a note in response to several comments. The original string is now 48 comments long, many of them not related to the core issue. So we will start over.

Groveton asked: “What makes a right location?” “Right location” is not determined by what any one person or Household does, it is determined by what everyone in the Community does to achieve Balance.

Groveton puts it this way: “... whether my house is in the right location seems to depend a lot on whether my job is in the right location.”

That is a start but it is not just the house and the job that matters.

It is Balance of J / H / S / R / A that matters. It is all the elements required to assemble a quality life. As many of the elements as possible that are needed to make you happy and safe should be “in the best locations.” As a backup there needs to be a shared vehicle system to get you to a few high value places that do not fit in the Village-scale station area or in the Community – say a job in the Zentrum, the Regional train station, stadium or concert hall.

Lets us assume one has a job and a home that are in convenient proximity. Next thing you know, children are on the horizon. The question that the partners must ask is not “where is the best school?”

The questionS are:

What can we do with those in my Dooryard and Cluster to crate the best environment for infants and toddlers?

What can we do with those in my Neighborhood to create the best environment and education for our grade schoolers?

What can we do with those in my Village to create the best environment and education for our junior and senior high schoolers?

What can we do with those in my Community to create the best environment and community Agencies and Institutions – including a Community college for all of us?

Ask not where to go to find a ________, ask how can we can create great ________s in this Community.

You say you move too often and change living patterns too often to make this work?

You may think you are still living in the past when burning through Natural Capital paid for a much wider range of choice and the level of excess which is reflected in the widening wealth gap, the financial crisis, food insecurity, energy dependence, etc., and, of course, dysfunctional settlement patterns.

In fact there never was a time when this “go where and when I want” strategy worked for more than a few at the top of the Ziggurat. It seemed like it a few decades ago but that was a temporary illusion driven by advertising and living off of cheap energy and foreign debt.

The Large, Private Vehicle Mobility Myth is that a Household can live where they want, seek employment where they want and then Agencies can provide a Mobility and Access system that allows everyone to go wherever they what, whenever they want and arrive in a timely manner.

Larry Gross asks again about “data.” We will get to data (again) in a further note as promised in UPON FURTHER REVIEW.

TMT said “As I understand the rule, if you take a job on the Hill, you should sell your house...”

Well that is a problem. Some will be able to do that, not everyone.

TMT, let us be clear the “Rule” is “pay the full location variable cost and you can do what you want.”

However, given humans – especially in the US of A – have burned through so much of their Natural Capital they will find the choices going forward are constrained by the market and by democratic processes – if humans are fortunate enough to preserve democracy and a market economy in the face of declining resources and growing demand by those who have been left behind by past actions.

If you think there are too many taxes now, just wait until you finally get around to costing out the true location-variable tab for the life style you espouse as a right.

The choice is intelligent and Fundamental Transformation or

Collapse.

Failure to prepare for the future and failure to reconsider traditional practices when conditions change is the prelude to Collapse.

As you may have noted, conditions HAVE changed.

It is depressing that Large, Private Vehicles and the Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong Location – places like Mountain Home – are the primary drivers of dysfunctional human settlement patterns. In spite of this reality, they have been used to “recover” from every recession since The Great Depression.

Now, when it should be clear to all that a new perspective is needed to achieve a sustainable trajectory for civilization, all the “leadership” is talking about is bailing out Detroit and propping up a flawed financial system exposed by the mortgage, derivative and default swap meltdown.

EMR

UPON FURTHER REVIEW

In late September and early October EMR posted four notes on the prospect of obtaining a sustainable trajectory for civilization. These posts generated an inordinate number of unfounded, negative comments. Since Jim Bacon has taken on new responsibilities, he no longer has time for comments such as “... I have been editing EMR’s work for X years and never once have I seen him suggest ...” Without these admonitions, the attacks have become more pointed, more personal and farther from the topic of the post.

Based on the tone and content of the comments it appeared useful to more carefully analyze the responses to the four posts: “Fundamental Transformation” (21 September 2008), “Toward a Sustainable Trajectory” (29 September 2008), “Obstacles on the Path to a Sustainable Trajectory” (3 October 2008), and “Worth Noting Again” (3 October 2008).

For reasons noted previously on this Blog, EMR does not read all the comments so did not have a full grasp of how far comments had deteriorated. A comment by comment analysis found there was no basis for many of the attacks and no indication that most commentors had tried to understand or even read the material posted and cited.

The majority – but not all – of the comments had the sole intent on discounting, discrediting and belittling. They included inaccurate summaries of web searches, links to sparky and irrelevant material and gratuitous diagnosis of psychiatric disorders.


A NEW APPROACH

SYNERGY is in the final stages of editing TRILO-G for publication. At this point there is a need for short sections and supplemental text to tie current events to the larger context – the exploration of the economic, social and physical ramifications of functional and dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

After a review of the comments following the four posts noted above it was determined that it would speed up the pre-publication editing process if unedited first drafts of TRILO-G material was posted on the blog.

The trial posts included “It is Elementary,” (10 October 2008), “The Role of the Media,” (11 October 2008), “Swift Boating the Mortgage Crisis,” (12 October 2008) and “The Bottom Line,” 13 October 2008). Other drafts material has also been posted.

Why would someone post these drafts?

This is the free market at work. Posting these drafts is the cheapest and fastest way to sniff out passages and topics that could become targets of intentional misrepresentations and distortions.

TRILO-G is being published with staff support and half a dozen colleagues who read and comment on the material in draft form. None of these reviewers can identify sentences and paragraphs that need armoring against unfounded criticism as fast as Bacons Rebellion commentors.

Posting the draft material is far more efficient than paying additional staff or hiring focus group managers to help sniff out material that is subject to unfounded attack. Bacons Rebellion commentors possess a well honed ability to identify statements that can be maliciously misinterpreted.

The results of the experiment have been spectacular! Thank you.

The statements that have been shown to be vulnerable to intentional misinterpretations and distortions have been and will revised / restated before the Beta draft appears. The content of the four posts noted above will become part of Chapter 29, in a section titled “It Is the Settlement Pattern, Stupid.” Other post will become parts of chapters throughout the text.


THE LARGER QUESTIONS

Having turned lemons to lemonade several larger questions remain. These questions are important if one is to develop an educational program to help citizens understand human settlement patterns and obtaining a sustainable trajectory for society.

What is the motivation for these attacks?

It this a problem with this Blog, with Blogging in general or with all media?

First, how can one be sure that many are intentional misinterpretations and distortions and not just statements of uniformed or misinformed personal opinion? A careful reading suggests that a few do not bother to address the subject of the post and almost no one addresses the core idea. Commentors most often pick a phrase or sentence and then attack. They appear to be sure anything EMR presents is wrong so any attack is justified.

EMR knows from direct feedback that many readers do understand but that is not what comes across in th comments. Some who understand say they do not want to be subject to slings and arrows of the flamers.

It is clear that Flamers desire a forum. There will always be 20 percent who claim the Earth is flat and they find a place to express their views in Blog comments.

In a larger context this "vocal minority" may be a root cause the He Said / She Said “journalism” of MainStream Media profiled in THE ESTATES MATRIX.

(Favorite quote of the weekend: “The public’s frankly gotten frustrated with the conventional of objectivity, the idea that you (journalists) have to present both side of the story, even if one side is completely bogus.” In WaPo Magazine “Onion Nation.”)

In response to the heap of negative comments there are a number of other observations that will be posted from time to time.

In the meantime, here is an example of a brief section of draft material that has been added to Chapter 3:

..................

STRAWPERSONS – RED HERRING EMPLOYED IN DEFENSE OF MYTHS

Beyond the three well articulated diversions noted above there is an avalanche of strawpersons; Red herring tossed up to divert attention from Myths.

One favorite from the realm of blogging is “The Pregnant Mother of Two” championed by Blogger Bob. This strawperson was put forth to justify Autonomobile dominated settlement patterns that would facilitate The Pregnant Mother of Two driving to a supermarket in a Large, Private Vehicle. If anything impedes the use of Large, Private Vehicles it would be a gross affront to civilized society in the view of Blogger Bob because it would make life miserable for The Pregnant Mother of Two.

Shall we consider the real world?

A far smaller percentage of citizens are pregnant at any given time than the percentage who are always isolated by near exclusive dependence on the autonomobile for Access and Mobility.

This reality becomes even more critical as the population ages. Even more important, the number who are isolated by Autocentric settlement patterns rises dramatically as the cost of Autonomobility rises.

Even the most rudimentary calculation of alternative settlement pattern costs demonstrate that it would be far cheaper a build a special environment for pregnant women to shop for necessities than to create millions of acres of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

One could design a Community-serving hyper*mart with isles wide enough to drive to car-window-accessible shelves. The subsidy to make this facility available to certified pregnant women would be paid for by the vast savings due to functional settlement patterns in the rest of the Community. The general public could shop in the Pregnant Woman Center if they paid the full cost. This would work just like the justification for HOT lanes. One can just imagine the opportunities for public private partnerships...

But wait, the Pregnant Mothers of Two can now shop by phone and have the goods delivered. And what is the responsibility to support the Household of the person who got her pregnant? Oh, right, he is so busy overcoming dysfunctional settlement patterns he has no time to help out.

The questions are endless but irrelevant when one understands that it would be far more effective and far more efficient to evolve functional settlement patterns Community-wide.

A functional environment would be better for all women – pregnant or not – and for all small children – with or without a pregnant mother. The bottom line it would be better for everyone. This better alternative of functional human settlement patterns is explored in the “social impact chapters” (8 and 9) of The Shape of the Future and specifically in the discussion of “It takes a Village” in Chapter 9, Box 3. Also see “A Yard Where Johnny Can Run and Play,” 1 December 2003.

If Blogger Bob would bother to run the numbers, he would understand the need for functional human settlement patterns. Does he do that? No, he parades out The Pregnant Mother of Two who in his mind must be given the opportunity drive a Large, Private Vehicle to a big parking lot outside a store to get provisions for her family regardless of the cumulative consequences.

This is typical of the strawperson tossed up to obfuscate attempts to eliminate settlement pattern Myths.

...............

By the way, if you did not pass the Monday Morning Test you may not understand.

More responses in due course.

EMR

MONDAY MORNING TEST

Google Map search for Mountain House, California and Waterloo, Iowa (Tks to Larry Gross for a great example)

Background: Mountain House is the new poster child of Wrong House, Wrong Location and underwater mortgages (90% or 95% depending on source.) Both Mountain House and Waterloo are in agricultural regions that are among the most productive on the planet.

If from these two maps do not make:

Clear Edge
Critical Mass
Balanced Community
New Urban Region
Mobility and Access Crisis
Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis
Helter Skelter Crisis
Sustainable human settlement patterns

very clear to you, please do not vote or invest until you have overcome Geographic Illiteracy.

Until a majority of US of A citizens can understand these eight concepts, political leaders will have no choice but to promise economic growth instead of sustainable trajectory for society.

EMR

Let the Sun Shine In!

Virginia state government has taken another big step towards transparency thanks to the publication today of the Virginia Public Access Project's redesigned website. VPAP provides a deeper, richer database of campaign contributions and lobbying activity, and it's searchable in more ways than ever.

Click on the profile for Attorney General Bob McDonnell, candidate for governor, and you have a choice of tabs for viewing his data by top donors (Mark J. Kington, $28,500), top industries (real estate developers, $63,301), top vendors (Commonwealth Consultants, $56,634), and top services (staff, political consultants, $148,459).

So, you wonder who this Mark Kington fellow is. Click on his name, and you reach his profile. He's an Alexandria-based venture capitalist (and former business partner of U.S. Sen.-elect Mark Warner, although the database doesn't tell you that).

Back to the McDonnell profile, and you can click on a tab that provides all previous election results, all campaign financing committees associated with the candidate, and expenditure info as detailed as the fact that he has spent $1,671 at Sine Irish Pub (a great place to grab a beer or dinner near the state capitol, by the way).

Legislator data goes deeper than ever before, providing easy access to the lawmaker's financial disclosure information: salary (within broad monetary ranges), corporate affiliations, personal liabilities, investments, privately funded payments for trips, taxpayer funded payment for trips, gifts, business interests and more.

Once upon a time, this information resided only in dusty government offices in Richmond. It was a pain to access, even if you were a journalist or lobbyist and had the time to rummage through the documents. As a practical matter, transparency was limited. Now the information is all online where any citizen can get to it 24/7. Let the sun shine in, baby, let the sun shine in.

When the Lights Go Out

Electricity is something we all take forgranted -- until we don't have it. Then our society breaks down.

That's why we ought to pay attention to a recent study, "Lights Out in 2009," published by the NextGen Energy Council. That organization is supported by the electric utility industry, the coal industry and other players with a vested interest in growing the electric industry, so we need to take its conclusions with a grain of salt. However, if NextGen is even close to being right, the U.S. faces massive disruptions within the next few years that will make the today's concerns about the impact of Global Warming in 2010 seem absurdly remote.

Here's the argument in a nutshell: Since the early 1990s, baseload generation reserve margins have declined precipitously from 30-40 percent to 17 percent in 2007. Compounding the problem, a disparity between growth in electric demand and capacity could shrink those margins by another 10 percent by 2016. Margins of 12-15 percent are deemed the minimum required to safeguard against brownouts and blackouts.

According to NextGen, the shortage of generating capacity will be compounded by insufficient transmission capacity -- the ability to get electricity to where it's needed. Some areas are likely to be hit sooner and harder than others. California and the Rocky Mountain states are in deep doodoo, and the northeast urban corridor, including Washington, D.C., are in mid-waist doodoo.

Nationally, NextGen estimates that the U.S. will need to install $250 billion of new generating capacity and $80 billion of new transmission capacity by 2016 to avoid power disruptions costing the economy a guesstimated $80 billion a year. That capacity is not being built, the organization contends, because (a) virtually every project is blocked or delayed by lawsuits, and (b) state regulatory agencies are imposing Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which would make electric supplies dependent upon variable wind- and solar-powered generating capacity and aggravating the challenge of getting electricity where you need it when you need it.

A hallmark of the Kaine administration has been its attention to the impact of Global Warming upon Virginia's economy and ecosystems. That's a worthy study. We need to think long term, and we need to adopt a holistic framework for approaching public policy that gives proper weight to the environment. However, while attention of our policy makers is fixated on the end of the century, we are paying scant attention to problems of far greater magnitude that could be only three or four years away.

Here's a prediction: If brownouts and blackouts start devastating Virginia's economy, people will be a whole lot more focused on that problem -- by a factor of 100 -- than hypothetical concerns of what might happen if temperatures and sea levels rise nine decades from now. Global Warming alarmists and environmentalists generally will be discredited. The public will demand immediate solutions, even if those solutions are expensive, short-sighted and environmentally destructive. The public will throw money at Big Grid remedies that provide a quick fix, even if they perpetuate the energy status quo instead of creating the distributed grid we need for a sustainable future.

Virginia's public policy makers, including its environmental leaders, need to get out front of these problems now -- not when the blackouts hit.

(Image cutline: April 2008 protest in Pakistan prompted by persistent blackouts.)